34.7 C
Vientiane
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
spot_img
Home Blog Page 2014

Gold market shows screaming buy signals at the start of 2023

Increased demand for jewellery in mainland China and Malaysia will cause gold to soar above $2,000 in 2023.

KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach – 21 March 2023 – 2022 was a tough year for gold, but in the last three months of 2022 the situation changed radically: net short position in gold was on the low side; banks began to buy gold into foreign exchange reserves; the U.S. economy began to signal a slowdown in inflation, which in turn contributed to a softening of the Fed’s rhetoric. As a result, gold gained bullish momentum and added 13% by the end of the year.

main pic.jpg

For now, the gold market looks like a picture of a perfect storm in front of us—with a strong bullish rally and a moderate bearish correction. But to be more confident, gold investors need to dive into the specifics and study the fundamentals, such as supply and demand dynamics, significant political and economic factors.

The OctaFX experts examined supply and demand data, as well as the weight of other factors that have an impact on the gold price.

Central bank purchases are the main driver

At the end of 2022, demand for gold jumped 18% to 4,741 tonnes. The key driver of this growth was enormous purchases by central banks. In 2022, central bank demand was 1,136 tonnes (152% y/y), which is a record (see pic).


Pic. Net central bank demand in tonnes.

The reason for the increased demand on the part of the central banks is in the geopolitics and significantly correlates with the events in Eastern Europe. During the conflict, information about the freezing of U.S. Treasuries purchased by Russia appeared in the information field. This fact is a precedent showing that the traditional system of foreign exchange reserves does not work. It is therefore quite logical that the central banks of the world have revised the risks: they reduced the share of U.S. Treasuries and dollar cash in favour of physical gold.

Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at OctaFX, believes that ‘due to continued geopolitical tensions and a virtually non-operational foreign exchange reserve system, central bank purchases will remain high throughout 2023 at 1,000–1,200 tonnes’.

Investment demand—potential driver to boost the gold price higher

Growth in demand from the central banks is confirmed by increased investment demand, which rose to 1,107 tonnes in 2022 (+10% YoY) mainly due to higher interest in physical gold. At the same time, withdrawals from gold funds continued in 2022, but were more moderate relative to 2021.

Pic. Gold ETF yearly flows (in tonnes).

There has been no clear participation of global gold ETFs over the past two years. But now the situation is changing. Comparing monthly flows between US and Europe ETFs, it appears that the outflow of gold from European ETFs masked the incipient positive flows into US ETFs. Futures dynamics have a statistically significant impact on ETF flows with a time lag of two months. Based on this statement, the 13% gold value increase in December 2022—January 2023 is not yet embedded in the current flows and will have a positive impact on investment demand over the next 1–3 months.

‘Considering the positive dynamics of the gold price, the growing demand from North American ETFs (50% of world holdings) and the absence of an inflation shock as well as softer monetary policy, total ETF demand will stop being negative and approach its median value for the last 12 years, reaching 124 tonnes by the end of 2023 (vs -110 tonnes in 2022),’ the OctaFX expert Gero Azrul commented.

Jewellery consumption in China has a significant impact

Jewellery consumption, the largest component of demand, dropped 3% to 2,086 tonnes in 2022. The decline was due to a lack of appetite mainly from the jewellery markets of China and zero-COVID policy—demand in China dropped 15% to 598 tonnes (vs. 699 tonnes in 2021). Chinese demand for gold jewellery accounts for one-third of global demand.

Pic. Jewellery demand in selected countries (2022).

Currently, a key blocker of industrial cycle recovery problems related to COVID lockdowns has disappeared—in early 2023, the Chinese government announced the abolition of zero-COVID policy.

The additional factor in favour of APAC demand growth is the growing demand in local markets. Thus, jewellery demand in Malaysia grew by 24%, in Singapore by 30%, and in Vietnam by 51%. In fact, business cycles in the APAC are moving into an early cycle in which gold mining companies (materials sector) are growing moderately over a 1–2 year interval.

In this regard, Kar Yong Ang expects the economic recovery of mainland China and PRC in particular to boost demand in 2023 by 17% year-on-year (up to 700 tonnes).

Gold supply is stable over years

Overall, gold supply shows a fairly stable picture. Even supply-chains and geopolitical disruptions of 2020–2022 had no statistically significant impact. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last 13 years is 2.1%. The gold supply increased by 2% in 2022 to 4,755 tonnes, coming very close to the 2018 peak.

Opportunity cost and uncertainty are the key tailwinds for gold in 2023

Apart from the information above, investors need to consider four groups of additional fundamental factors: economic expansion; risk and uncertainty; opportunity cost; momentum / impulse.

From a macro perspective, a good portion of last performance can be attributed to the opportunity cost (weaker US dollar, followed by a drop in the US 10-year Treasury yield).

Conclusion:

  1. According to the OctaFX expert calculations, total physical gold demand in 2023 will increase by 6.3% to over 5,000 tonnes (vs. 4,740 tonnes in 2022).
  2. Gold price has an upside trend due to the opportunity cost factor—amid the continued weakening of the dollar and a moderate decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield.
  3. Extremely strong support for gold quotes in 2023 will be due to the risk and uncertainty factor, which will manifest itself in increased demand for physical gold from central banks.
  4. All these drivers allows forecasting the gold price over $2,000/oz by the end of 2023, which corresponds to a potential increase of +8.3% at the time of writing.

Hashtag: #OctaFX

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

About OctaFX

is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety of services already utilised by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 21 million trading accounts. Free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools they provide help clients reach their investment goals.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

In the APAC region, OctaFX managed to capture the ‘Best Forex Broker Malaysia 2022’ award and the ‘Best Global Broker Asia 2022’ from Global Banking and Finance Review and International Business Magazine, respectively.

Mother, Child Mortality Rates Decline In Laos

A health worker provides ante-natal care in a remote area of Laos (UNICEF)
A health worker provides ante-natal care in a remote area of Laos (Photo: UNICEF)

Mortality rates in children under five and birthing mothers in Laos have decreased significantly in the past year due to significant strides in hygiene and health promotion.

TERRAOIL SWISS AG: Terraoil Announces New Corporate Structure

Shareholders Will Be Invited to Participate in Restructuring of Terraoil

STEINHAUSEN, SWITZERLAND – EQS Newswire – 21 March 2023 – Terraoil Swiss AG (“Terraoil” or “Company”), an energy company with a strong focus on the Mediterranean is pleased to announce that the Company has completed the initial steps for the restructuring of the Company. The restructuring will provide all shareholders the opportunity to hold a pro-rata share of the new parent company (“Topco”) which shares are intended to be listed on an international stock exchange. It is expected that Terraoil will ultimately become a 100% owned subsidiary of Topco.

The restructuring will give all registered shareholders the opportunity to exchange their existing shares of Terraoil for shares of Topco on a one for one basis. The transaction is expected to be effected by way of capital increases of Topco by contributions in kind. Topco has been incorporated in Liechtenstein based on the analysis of the Company which showed that for many international investors it is more attractive to invest into a Liechtenstein rather than a Swiss company. All registered shareholders will receive further written communication directly from the Company with instructions on how to exchange their shares for Topco shares.

Topco has engaged a top tier investment bank as its financial advisor with respect to a pre-initial public offering financing. It is envisaged that this investment bank will also support Topco in a potential international stock listing. Shareholders will receive further information if and when available and appropriate.

Chief Executive Officer, Peter Krempin commented:

“We have reached a major milestone in the development of the group. Our shareholders will now have the opportunity to participate in the restructuring of the Company. Our partnership with a renowned investment bank is expected to provide the expertise to raise the required financing to advance the group’s projects and ultimately achieve the listing of our integrated energy company on an international stock exchange.”

If you are an Terraoil shareholder and would like additional information, contact Peter Krempin either via email investors@terraoil.swiss or by telephone at +41 71 544 01 20.

Hashtag: #Terraoil

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

About Terraoil Swiss AG

Terraoil is an international energy company with a focus to identify and advance business opportunities in the upstream oil and gas and renewable energy sectors in the Mediterranean region.

Terraoil forward-looking statements

This media release serves informational purposes and constitutes neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation or an advertisement to buy any shares of Terraoil Swiss AG in any jurisdiction. This media release does not constitute a prospectus within the meaning of Article 35 et seqq. of the Swiss Federal Act on Financial Services. In addition, investors should seek advice from their bank or their financial adviser. This media release and the information contained therein are not being issued for the purpose of selling shares in the United States of America, Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, or the European Economic Area and must not be distributed within or to such countries or via publications with a general circulation in such countries.

This media release contains forward-looking statements such as projections, forecasts, and estimates. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those anticipated in this media release. Readers should therefore not rely on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained in this media release are based on the views and assumptions of Terraoil Swiss AG as of this date and Terraoil Swiss AG does not assume any obligation to update or revise this media release.

Laos Marked as “Country of Concern” for Food Security

Food insecurity Affecting Over 1 Million People In Laos
2022 FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION (CFSAM) TO THE LAOS. ( Photo : WFP )

A joint report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP) shows that over a million people in Laos suffered from food insecurity last year.

Could Luang Prabang Be at Risk of Overtourism?

Could Luang Prabang suffer from overtourism?
Tourists crowd the streets in Luang Prabang to witness the morning almsgiving ceremony.

Brought to its knees during the Covid-19 pandemic, Luang Prabang is now facing the opposite problem as swarms of tourists descend upon the city, with tourism experts sounding the alarm about the potential for overtourism.

Vientiane Authorities Urge Telcos to Bury Cables

Vientiane Government Urges Telephone Companies to Quickly Bury Their Cable
Messy telephone cables in Vientiane Capital, Laos (photo: iStock)

Vientiane’s Department of Communication and Technology issued a notice last week ordering telephone companies in the capital to bury their cables underground by 25 March.

Japan, China leaders Visit Rival Capitals in Ukraine War

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a news conference at his official residence in Tokyo on March 17, 2023. Kishida was seen Tuesday, March 21, heading to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (Yoshikazu Tsuno/Pool Photo via AP, File)
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a news conference at his official residence in Tokyo on March 17, 2023. Kishida was seen Tuesday, March 21, heading to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (Yoshikazu Tsuno/Pool Photo via AP, File).

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a surprise visit to Ukraine early Tuesday, hours after Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in neighboring Russia for a three-day visit. The dueling summits come as the longtime rivals are on diplomatic offensives.

New Life Successfully Hosted 3-day Mental Health Symposium

Explore Opportunities and Challenges with Government Officials, Scholars, Professionals, and Service Users

“330 Well-Being Index” research indicates 25% of Hong Kong people’s well-being score below average

HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach – 21 March 2023 – The New Life Psychiatric Rehabilitation Association (NLPRA) is a non-profit organization, of 58 years old, specializing in mental health. NLPRA adopts a dual objective in serving the community: strenuously serving persons in recovery of mental illness and their families with multifarious high-quality professional services; and proactively promoting holistic body (3), mind (3) and spirit (0) well-being for everyone in the community through a series of community mental health programmes.

Prof. Annie TAM Kam-lan, GBS, JP, Chairperson of Executive Committee of NLPRA hopes the symposium created a platform to explore the innovative mindset and challenges of mental health in a changing environment with government officials, scholars, professionals, and service users.
Prof. Annie TAM Kam-lan, GBS, JP, Chairperson of Executive Committee of NLPRA hopes the symposium created a platform to explore the innovative mindset and challenges of mental health in a changing environment with government officials, scholars, professionals, and service users.

Having the new challenges in the “post-COVID” era in mind, NLPRA has just humbly hosted a 3-day Mental Health Symposium from March 15th to 17th, as well as the announcement of the research results of “330 Well-Being Index”. The symposium theme is “Change and Challenge: From Recovery to Holistic Well-being”. It aims to provide a timely platform for government officials, experts and other people who care about mental health in Hong Kong. Through 16 sessions covering 7 wide-ranging dialogue on mental health topics, while embracing changes and meeting challenges, the symposium has explored how to forge the way forward and better meet the ever-changing social needs, and to promote the holistic 330 well-being for all.

Mr. Chris SUN Yuk-han, JP, Secretary for Labour and Welfare was honored to attend the closing ceremony of the Mental Health Symposium.
Mr. Chris SUN Yuk-han, JP, Secretary for Labour and Welfare was honored to attend the closing ceremony of the Mental Health Symposium.

There were more than 1,300 registered participants in the symposium with most of them attended online. All the delegates enjoyed a valuable and productive event. Prof. Annie TAM Kam-lan, GBS, JP, Chairperson of Executive Committee, NLPRA delivered the opening remarks. She reviewed the 58-year journey of NLPRA’s culture and services. Prof. Annie TAM hopes to promote the reform of mental health services, not only for the people in recovery but also for everyone in the community. “We will continue to develop new initiatives and explore how a multi-sector approach may help to drive the ‘Transforming health care for all’. The symposium created a platform to explore the innovative mindset and challenges of mental health in a changing ‘Post-COVID’ environment with government officials, scholars, professionals, and service users.”

Secretary for Health Prof. LO Chung-mau, BBS, JP, delivered the opening keynote speech on “Mental Health Services in Hong Kong”. Prof. LO stated that NLPRA is the government’s most important partner in mental health, and expressed his gratitude to NLPRA on behalf of the government and Hong Kong people. Prof. LO said: “Holistic Well-being is an important issue for the Hong Kong Government, especially confronting the challenges of the ‘New Normal’ from the post pandemic.” He also shared some government’s work on mental health, such as “Shall We Talk”, The Mental Health Workplace Charter, “Pilot Scheme for ADHD+” and “Dementia Community Support Scheme”.

At the annual dinner of New Life Psychiatric Rehabilitation Association, all the guests of honor made a toast together: (From the left) Vice-President of NLPRA, Prof. YEOH Eng-kiong, GBS, OBE, JP; Deputy Director-General of the Department of Social Work, of the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government in the HKSAR Mr. ZHOU He; the Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Mr. Chris SUN Yuk-han, JP; Patron of NLPRA, Mr. HO Sai-chu, GBM, GBS, JP; Chairperson of Executive Committee of NLPRA, Prof. Annie TAM Kam-lan, GBS, JP; the Chairman of the Advisory Committee on Mental Health, Mr WONG Yan-lung, GBM, SC; Professor, School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Former Secretary for Food and Health, Prof. Sophia CHAN Siu-chee, GBS, JP; and Vice-President of NLPRA, Mrs. Susan So, SBS.
At the annual dinner of New Life Psychiatric Rehabilitation Association, all the guests of honor made a toast together: (From the left) Vice-President of NLPRA, Prof. YEOH Eng-kiong, GBS, OBE, JP; Deputy Director-General of the Department of Social Work, of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the HKSAR Mr. ZHOU He; the Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Mr. Chris SUN Yuk-han, JP; Patron of NLPRA, Mr. HO Sai-chu, GBM, GBS, JP; Chairperson of Executive Committee of NLPRA, Prof. Annie TAM Kam-lan, GBS, JP; the Chairman of the Advisory Committee on Mental Health, Mr WONG Yan-lung, GBM, SC; Professor, School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Former Secretary for Food and Health, Prof. Sophia CHAN Siu-chee, GBS, JP; and Vice-President of NLPRA, Mrs. Susan So, SBS.

New Life also held a press briefing to introduce the “[330] Well-being Index” and announce its research results. New Life and Professor Patrick Wing-leung LEUNG, Director of Graduate Studies in Clinical Psychology of The Chinese University of Hong Kong have conducted subsequent studies on the “Comprehensive Well-Being Scale” (Sham, Yeung, Mak & Powell, 2021), which validated the CWBS can be applied to the general public. Professor LEUNG mentioned, “The CWBS was found to correlate not only issues of distress such as anxiety, depression, psychological distress, physical symptoms and alienation, but also other important indices of well-being and items relating to strengths and values such as resilience, meanings of life, optimism, compassionate love, social connectedness, universalism, and self-transcendence.”

A total of 1,020 valid questionnaires were collected in the community for the study on CWBS in January 2023. According to the Population Census, a stratified sampling method based on sex, age, and education level was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the community sample. The [330] Well-Being Index can be obtained after individuals fill out the questionnaire. The calculated total score is classified into one of the 3 categories: A total score of 65 or below indicates one’s level of well-being to be below average. A total score of 66-78 indicates an average level of well-being. A total score of 79 or above indicates one’s level of well-being to be above average. Research findings revealed 25% of samples attained a CWBS score of 65 or below. These individuals may need to seek professional assistance for further assessment and advice. “[330] Well-Being Index” assessment website has already been launched (https://wellbeingindex.dayday330.hk). The general public are welcome to take the questionnaire as a preliminary self-assessment of one’s overall well-being. NLPRA will provide suitable recommendations on how to take good care of one’s 330 wellness and maintain a positive attitude to face various challenges in life.

At the closing session, Mr. Chris SUN Yuk-han, JP, Secretary for Labour and Welfare delivered a speech on “Future of Mental Health Services” in Hong Kong. Mr. SUN expressed that mental health services are facing 4 challenges in the future: the aging population, the needs of caregivers, higher education levels, and post-COVID recovery. “In the past 3 years, due to fighting the pandemic and social distancing measures, the mental distress of a considerable number of citizens may have increased significantly. Having a long period of online classes and a lack of social interaction, some youngsters may become hidden youths, or have extra emotional needs. In the future, we must keep pace with the times and do our best to provide rehabilitation services and appropriate support for people with mental health needs, and help them integrate into society. As President Xi Jinping mentioned in his speech at the 20th National Congress, we hope that the majority of disabled people should live and work in peace and contentment, with no worries about food and clothing, and live a happy and beautiful life.”

Hashtag: #NewLife

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.